Bitcoin's Halving Cycle Is an Illusion, Says Analyst Who Once Championed It

Dan Gambardello has reversed his long-held view on Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. After years of using halving dates as a key reference, the analyst now argues that price moves track broader economic expansions and contractions far more closely than any fixed calendar rhythm.

Looking back to 2011, he points out that Bitcoin consistently weakened during downturns and strengthened when growth resumed. Past halvings often aligned with these shifts, creating the false impression of a predictable four-year pattern.

Gambardello believes the current cycle already breaks the old model. Instead of a low around October 2026, he sees a possible bottom in June 2026, timed with the expected economic rebound after the Fed ends quantitative tightening in December 2025.

While ETF inflows and political tailwinds helped Bitcoin reclaim its high, he calls this move premature. A stronger rally, he says, will likely arrive once economic growth accelerates and AI-driven productivity gains begin to reshape markets.

Based on information from https://cryptonews.net