JP Morgan assigns Bitcoin its first long-term return forecast

JP Morgan Asset Management has included Bitcoin in its annual long-term capital market assumptions for the first time. The 31st edition of the report, released on 19 October 2026, puts the cryptocurrency’s expected annual return at 10 % over a 10- to 15-year horizon.

The arithmetic mean return in the same model reaches 20.9 %, while annual volatility stands at 55 %. The gap reflects the mathematics of highly volatile assets, where large swings pull the final expected return lower.

By comparison, real-estate investment trusts are projected at 8.2 % in the same document. Bitcoin beats that figure on paper, yet its volatility remains dramatically higher.

Analysts Sheena Shah and Dennis Cristallo noted that Bitcoin is still viewed mainly as a speculative bet and a potential hedge against currency debasement rather than a portfolio diversifier. It was left out of both the main allocation models and the correlation matrix.

Based on information from cryptonews.net